Abstract

In view of the importance of densely populated high consequence area in the management of buried gas pipelines, a special quantitative risk assessment method was proposed in order to clarify the key points of control, optimize resource allocation and refine emergency plans. Firstly, the general failure probability was determined under different pipe diameters based on the pipeline failure statistics. According to the uncertainty of pipeline management and pipeline damage, the calculation models of management correction factor and damage correction factor were constructed. And the pipeline failure probability was obtained by correcting the general failure probability. Then, combining with the theories of explosion shock intensity and fire heat radiation intensity, the probability variable of personnel death was calculated by taking personnel death as the main failure consequence of densely populated high consequence area. Finally, the individual risk and social risk of the gas pipeline accident were analyzed to determine the risk acceptability of the densely populated high consequence area. Method was applicated by taking a buried gas pipeline as an example, the case analysis shows that the risk acceptability can be effectively evaluated through the special quantitative risk assessment, which provides the basis for the formulation of risk control measures, and measures to shorten the response time can reduce the risk level of the pipeline.

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