In order to determine the target flaw depths for performance demonstration (PD) of nondestructive testing of cast austenitic stainless steel (CASS) pipes, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) code, “PREFACE”, was developed to evaluate ductile fracture and plastic collapse considering change in mechanical properties due to thermal aging and uncertainties of the mechanical properties. In the previous study[1], the tables of the target flaw depths for the highest ferrite content material of the Japanese CASS pipes at the fully saturated thermal aging condition were calculated for several flaw lengths and several stress levels by the PREFACE code. However, the sensitivity study of the ferrite content on the target flaw depth revealed that the fully saturated thermal aging condition may not be the most severe condition for the target flaw depth. In this study, the PREFACE code was modified to improve the dependency of ferrite content on true stress-strain curve and to apply limit load method directly at the failure mode of plastic collapse. To confirm of the correct relation between ferrite content and aging time, deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed. For validation of the PFM function, the results of the deterministic analysis and PFM analysis were compared.

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