Risk-based inspection (RBI) methodologies are widely used by industry to develop effective inspection programs for pressure vessels and piping. The RBI approach use data on equipment design, maintenance, and operation along with inspection history to evaluate both the likelihood and consequences of failure. RBI results provide a basis for selecting inspection methods and establishing inspection intervals and coverage. API RP 580 provides guidance on developing a RBI program for fixed equipment and piping, while API RP 581 provides quantitative procedures for establishing RBI methodology. Appendix J of the first edition (2000) of API RP 581 contained procedures for application to creep damage of furnace tubes. However, the second (2008) and third (2016) did not contain any procedures for application to creep damage of equipment, including furnace tubes. DNV GL undertook a RBI project for a coal-fired power plant in Malaysia that required evaluation of components subject to creep damage. As part of this project, a detailed likelihood of failure (LoF) model for creep was developed. This paper reviews the creep LoF model that was developed and discusses a case study of its application. The LoF is estimated using a limit state function where the resistance is characterized using Larson-Miller parameter creep-rupture expressions for the materials of interest and the load is characterized by the time in service. A mean value first order second moment (MVFOSM) method is employed to numerically compute LoF. Guidelines for including metallurgical replication results in the LoF estimate and for assigning inspection effectiveness for creep damage also are discussed.

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