Impact of Undetected Fabrication Flaws on LBB Risk

On-going assessments of the impact of active degradation mechanisms in US nuclear power plants previously approved for leak before break (LBB) relief are being performed with, among other methods, the extremely low probability of rupture (xLPR) code being developed under a memorandum of understanding between the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) [1]. This code finished with internal acceptance testing in July of 2016 and is undergoing sensitivity and understanding analyses and studies in preparation for its general release. One of the key components of the analysis tool is the integration of inspection methods for damage and the impact of leak detection on the risk of a pipe rupture before the pipe is detected to be leaking. While it is not impossible to detect a crack or defect that is less than 10% of the pipe wall thickness current ASME code does not give credit for inspections identifying a crack of this size. This study investigates the impact of combining the probabilistic analysis results from xLPR with a pre-existing flaw to determine the change, if any, to the risk. Fabrication flaws were found to have a statistically significant impact on the risk of rupture before leak detection.