This paper aims at evaluating the gas supply reliability of the gas network, which is meaningful to promote the safe operation of large natural gas transporting system. The solution to solve the problem is put forward by combination of Monte-Carlo method, Random Process Algorithm and hydraulic thermal method.
The reliability of the network depends on the user’s conformance to their requirements and their corresponding degree of gas supply security. Since the matter thing is whether the adequate gas can be sent to the users, the study of gas supply reliability should focus on the common unit states, including the functional state and typical expected failure states. While these familiar states can be obtained by analyzing the historical operating data stored in SCADA system along with the Monte-Carlo simulation, the corresponding failure probability of each state can be achieved. Moreover, the gas flow that expected by the user under various conditions can be performed by the hydraulic and thermal simulation software. Hence, the supply volume of the combined states is defined as the sum of the amount of states to be combined.
This evaluation model can reveal the performance of the gas supply at any time interval and under any degree of gas supply security. Not only can this model develop the classical reliability theory, but also have the benefits for the operation and maintenance of the network.
