The need to predict changes in fracture toughness for materials where the tensile properties change through life, such as with irradiation, whilst accounting for geometric constraint effects, such as crack size, are clearly important. Currently one of the most likely approaches by which to develop such ability are through application of local approach models. These approaches appear to be sufficient in predicting lower shelf toughness under high constraint conditions, but may fail when attempting to predict toughness in the transition region, for low constraint geometries or for different irradiation states, when using the same parameters, making reliable predictions impossible. Cleavage toughness predictions in the transition regime are here made with a stochastic, Monte Carlo implementation of the recently proposed James-Ford-Jivkov model. This implementation is based around the creation of individual initiators following the experimentally observed distribution for specific reactor pressure vessel steel, and determining if these initiators form voids or cause cleavage failure using the model’s improved criterion for particle failure. This implementation has been presented previously in PVP2015-45905, where it was successfully applied across different constraint conditions; in the work presented here it is applied across different irradiation conditions for a second type of steel. The model predicts the fracture toughness in a large part of the transition region, demonstrates an ability to predict the irradiation shift and shows a level of scatter similar to that observed experimentally. All results presented, for a given material, are obtained without changes in the model parameters. This suggests that the model can be used predicatively for assessing toughness changes due to constraint-, irradiation- and temperature-driven plasticity changes.

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