The US NRC/EPRI xLPR (eXtremely Low Probability of Rupture) probabilistic pipe fracture analysis program uses deterministic modules as the foundation for the calculation of the probability of pipe leak or rupture as a consequence of active degradation mechanisms, vibration or seismic loading. The circumferential crack opening displacement module, CrCOD, estimates crack opening displacement (COD) at the inside pipe surface, at the mid-wall thickness location, and at the outside pipe surface using a combined tension/crack face pressure/bending GE/EPRI-like solution. Each module has an uncertainty beyond the uncertainty of the xLPR data inputs. This paper documents the uncertainty for CrCOD.

Using 36 pipe fracture experiments, including: base metal, similar metal weld, and dissimilar metal weld experiments; bend only and pressure and bend loading; static and dynamic load histories; cracks that range from short to long, the uncertainty of the CrCOD methodology is characterized. Module uncertainty is presented in terms mean fit and standard deviation between prediction and experimental values.

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