In order to apply a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis to the structural integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV), PFM analysis code has been developed at JAEA. Using the PFM analysis code, PASCAL version 3, the conditional probabilities of crack initiation and fracture for an RPV during pressurized thermal shock events have been analyzed. Sensitivity analyses on some input parameters were performed to clarify the effect on the conditional fracture probability. Comparison between the conditional probabilities and temperature margin (ΔTm) from current deterministic analysis method were made for some model plant conditions of domestic typical old-type RPVs. From the analyses, a good correlation between ΔTm and the conditional probability of crack initiation was obtained.

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