Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) Version 1.0 Code: Pilot Study Problem Results

Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) 3.6.3 describes Leak-Before-Break (LBB) assessment procedures that can be used to demonstrate compliance with the 10CFR50 Appendix A, GDC-4 requirement that primary system pressure piping exhibit an extremely low probability of rupture. SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for assessment of piping systems with active degradation mechanisms, such as Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) which is currently occurring in systems that have been granted LBB approvals. Along with a series of existing qualitative steps to assure safety in LBB-approved lines experiencing PWSCC, NRC staff, working cooperatively with the nuclear industry through a memorandum of understanding with the Electric Power Research Institute, is developing a new, modular based, comprehensive piping system assessment methodology to directly demonstrate compliance with the regulations. This project, called xLPR (eXtremely Low Probability of Rupture), will model the effects and uncertainties of relevant active degradation mechanisms and the associated mitigation activities. The resulting analytical tool will be comprehensive, vetted with respect to the technical bases of models and inputs, flexible enough to permit analysis of a variety of in-service situations and adaptable such as to accommodate evolving and improving knowledge. A multi-year project has begun that will first focus on the development of a viable method and approach to address the effects of PWSCC as well as define the requirements necessary for a modular-based assessment tool. To meet this goal, the first version of this code has been developed as part of a pilot study, which leverages existing fracture mechanics based models and software coupled to both a commercial and an open source code framework to determine the framework and architecture requirements appropriate for building a modular-based code with this complexity. The pilot study focused on PWSCC in pressurizer surge nozzles, and is meant to demonstrate the feasibility of this code and approach and not to determine the absolute values of the probability of rupture. Later development phases will broaden the scope of xLPR to appropriate primary piping systems in pressurized and boiling water reactors (PWR and BWR), using an incremental approach that incorporates the design requirements and lessons learned from previous iterations. This paper specifically examines the xLPR Version 1.0 model, the methods and approach used to couple the deterministic modules within a probabilistic software framework, and the results from the pilot study. A comparison of the results specific to the surge nozzle sample problem is presented. This paper concludes with lessons learned from the pilot study.