This paper is built around ASTM E 2506, Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities. E 2506 establishes a three-step protocol—perform risk assessment, specify combinations of risk mitigation strategies for evaluation, and perform economic evaluation—to insure that the decision maker is provided the requisite information to choose the most cost effective combination of risk mitigation strategies. Because decisions associated with low-probability, high-consequence events involve uncertainty both in terms of appropriate evaluation procedures and event-related measures of likelihood and consequence, NIST developed a Risk Mitigation Toolkit. This paper uses (a) a data center undergoing renovation for improved security, and (b) a PVP-related failure event to illustrate how to perform the E 2506 three-step protocol with particular emphasis on the third step—perform economic evaluation. The third step is built around the Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection (CET), which was developed by NIST. Version 4.0 of CET is used to analyze the security- or failure-related event with a focus on consequence estimation and consequence assessment via Monte Carlo techniques. CET 4.0 includes detailed analysis and reporting features designed to identify key cost drivers, measure their impacts, and deliver estimated consequence parameters with uncertainty bounds. Significance of this economics-based intelligence (EI) tool is presented and discussed for security- or failure-consequence estimation to risk assessment of failure of critical structures or components.
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ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference
July 18–22, 2010
Bellevue, Washington, USA
Conference Sponsors:
- Pressure Vessels and Piping Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-49255
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
An Economics-Based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessel and Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation Available to Purchase
Robert E. Chapman,
Robert E. Chapman
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Jeffrey T. Fong,
Jeffrey T. Fong
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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David T. Butry,
David T. Butry
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Douglas S. Thomas,
Douglas S. Thomas
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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James J. Filliben,
James J. Filliben
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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N. Alan Heckert
N. Alan Heckert
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Robert E. Chapman
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Jeffrey T. Fong
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
David T. Butry
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Douglas S. Thomas
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
James J. Filliben
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
N. Alan Heckert
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Paper No:
PVP2010-25226, pp. 1091-1105; 15 pages
Published Online:
January 10, 2011
Citation
Chapman, RE, Fong, JT, Butry, DT, Thomas, DS, Filliben, JJ, & Heckert, NA. "An Economics-Based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessel and Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation." Proceedings of the ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference. ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference: Volume 6, Parts A and B. Bellevue, Washington, USA. July 18–22, 2010. pp. 1091-1105. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2010-25226
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