This paper is a continuation of a recent ASME Conference paper entitled “Design of a Python-Based Plug-in for Benchmarking Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Computer Codes with Failure Event Data” (PVP2009-77974). In that paper, which was co-authored by Fong, deWit, Marcal, Filliben, Heckert, and Gosselin, we designed a probability-uncertainty plug-in to automate the estimation of leakage probability with uncertainty bounds due to variability in a large number of factors. The estimation algorithm was based on a two-level full or fractional factorial design of experiments such that the total number of simulations will be small as compared to a Monte-Carlo method. This feature is attractive if the simulations were based on finite element analysis with a large number of nodes and elements. In this paper, we go one step further to derive a risk-uncertainty formula by computing separately the probability-uncertainty and the consequence-uncertainty of a given failure event, and then using the classical theory of error propagation to compute the risk-uncertainty within the domain of validity of that theory. The estimation of the consequence-uncertainty is accomplished by using a public-domain software package entitled “Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection, version 4.0, 2008” (http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/ or NIST Report NISTIR-7524), and is more fully described in a companion paper entitled “An Economics-based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessels & Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation,” (PVP2010-25226, Session MF-23.4 of this conference). A numerical example of an application of the risk-uncertainty formula using a 16-year historical database of probability and consequence of main steam and hot reheat piping systems is presented. Implication of this risk-uncertainty estimation tool to the design of a risk-informed in-service inspection program is discussed.
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ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference
July 18–22, 2010
Bellevue, Washington, USA
Conference Sponsors:
- Pressure Vessels and Piping Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-49255
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
A Risk-Uncertainty Formula Accounting for Uncertainties of Failure Probability and Consequence in a Nuclear Powerplant Available to Purchase
Jeffrey T. Fong,
Jeffrey T. Fong
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Stephen R. Gosselin,
Stephen R. Gosselin
Scandpower Risk Management, Inc., Richland, WA
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James J. Filliben,
James J. Filliben
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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N. Alan Heckert,
N. Alan Heckert
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Robert E. Chapman
Robert E. Chapman
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
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Jeffrey T. Fong
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Stephen R. Gosselin
Scandpower Risk Management, Inc., Richland, WA
Pedro V. Marcal
MPact Corp., Julian, CA
James J. Filliben
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
N. Alan Heckert
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Robert E. Chapman
National Institute of Standards & Tech. (NIST), Gaithersburg, MD
Paper No:
PVP2010-25168, pp. 1065-1089; 25 pages
Published Online:
January 10, 2011
Citation
Fong, JT, Gosselin, SR, Marcal, PV, Filliben, JJ, Heckert, NA, & Chapman, RE. "A Risk-Uncertainty Formula Accounting for Uncertainties of Failure Probability and Consequence in a Nuclear Powerplant." Proceedings of the ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference. ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference: Volume 6, Parts A and B. Bellevue, Washington, USA. July 18–22, 2010. pp. 1065-1089. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/PVP2010-25168
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