Failure Probability of Degraded Pipes Based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Seismic Safety Margin Assessment on NPP

The Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake happened in July 2007. Although the observed seismic ground motions of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plants greatly exceeded their design values, the important functions of the plants such as “shutdown”, “cooling”, and “confinement” were successfully ensured. Therefore, assessment of the seismic safety margin of nuclear power plants, both their systems and their components, becomes a very important issue. In this paper, failure probability of cracked pipes in existing nuclear power plants is analyzed by employing an improved probabilistic fracture mechanical analysis code and considering stress corrosion cracking and fatigue. Based on the analysis results of the failure probability and the definitions of the seismic safety margin, the seismic safety margin of degraded pipes in existing nuclear power plants is investigated.