Mistuning changes the dynamics of bladed disks significantly. Consequently, frequency domain methods for predicting the dynamics of mistuned bladed disks are typically based on iterative aeroelastic calculations. Converged aerodynamic matrices are required for accurate aeroelastic results of eigenvalue and forced response problems. The tremendous computation time needed for each aerodynamic iteration would greatly benefit from a fast method of predicting the number of iterations needed for converged results. A new hybrid technique is proposed to predict the convergence history based on several critical ratios and by approximating as linear the relation between the aerodynamic force and the complex frequencies (eigenvalues) of the system. The new technique is hybrid in that it uses a combined theoretical and stochastic/computational approach. The dynamics of an industrial bladed disk is investigated, and the predicted convergence histories are shown to match the actual results very well. Monte Carlo simulations using the new approach show that the aerodynamic ratio and the aerodynamic gradient ratio are important factors affecting the convergence history.

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