The Heavy-Section Steel Technology (HSST) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed a probabilistic structural mechanics (PSM) analysis of the damaged Davis Besse reactor pressure vessel head in support of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s ongoing forensic investigations. This paper presents a summary of the results of that PSM analysis, including a description of the Davis-Besse wastage-area damage model, the technical basis for the model, and the results of sensitivity studies based on a cladding capacity analysis (CCA) and an Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) investigation of the wastage cavity. A companion paper describes the HSST experimental program carried out at ORNL in parallel with the PSM analysis.

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