Successful life management of steam generators requires an ongoing operational assessment plan to monitor and address all potential degradation mechanisms. A degradation mechanism of concern is tube fretting as a result of flow-induced vibration. Flow induced vibration predictive methods routinely used for design purposes are based on deterministic nonlinear structural analysis techniques. In previous work, the authors have proposed the application of probabilistic techniques to better understand and assess the risk associated with operating power generating stations that have aging re-circulating steam generators. Probabilistic methods are better suited to address the variability of the parameters in operating steam generators, e.g., flow regime, support clearances, manufacturing tolerances, tube to support interactions, and material properties. In this work, an application of a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the propensity for fretting wear in an operating re-circulation steam generator is described. Tube wear damage is evaluated under steady-state conditions using two wear damage correlation models based on the tube-to-support impact force time histories and work rates obtained from nonlinear flow induced vibration analyses. Review of the tube motion in the supports and the impact/sliding criterion shows that significant tube damage at the U-bend supports is a result of impact wear. The results of this work provide the upper bound predictions of wear damage in the steam generators. The EPRI wear correlations for sliding wear and impact wear indicate good agreement with the observed damage and, given the preponderance of wear sites subject to impact, should form the basis of future predictions.

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