A procedure to calculate crack initiation probabilities by creep-fatigue damage is explained in this paper with a calculation example. Material properties of 316FR are determined as probabilistic distributions from test data. As the result yield stress, fatigue property, cyclic stress-strain relation and creep property are input into a creep-fatigue evaluation as the probabilistic distributions. The crack initiation probability is calculated with the condition for the Japanese commercialized sodium cooled fast breeder reactor. As the result, the allowable thermal cycles in the present design becomes 5 × 10−9 cumulative crack initiation probability.

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