A Spare Parts Demand Prediction Method for Wind Farm Based on Periodic Maintenance Strategy

Nowadays, the management level and information construction of wind power industry are still relatively backward, for example, the existing maintenance models for wind farm are much too single, and corrective maintenance strategy is the most commonly used, which means that maintenance measures are initiated only after a breakdown occurs in the system. Moreover, the wind farm spare parts management is out-dated, no practical and accurate spares demand assessment method is available. In order to enrich the choices of maintenance methods and eliminate the subjective influence in the demand analysis of spare parts, a spare parts demand prediction method for wind farm based on periodic maintenance strategy considering combination of different maintenance models for wind farms is proposed in this paper, which consists of five major steps, acquire the reliability functions of components, establish the maintenance strategy, set the maintenance parameters, maintenance strategy simulation and spare parts demand prediction. The discrete event simulation method is used to solve the prediction model, and results demonstrate the operability and practicality of the proposed demand forecasting method, which can provide guidance for the actual operation and maintenance of wind farms.