Abstract
The requirement of uncertainty analysis has shifted the transformation of sensitivity analysis from the deterministic area to the stochastic area.Geomechanical wellbore integrity problems during drilling operation can occur due to wellbore shear failure or tensile failure. To guarantee wellbore integrity, breakout and fracture geomechanical analysis is essential to estimate the Safe Mud Weight Window (SMWW). Wellbore stability problems causes many challenges in a drilling operation, such as pipe sticking, wellbore collapse, fluid loss and poor cement jobs. A drilling engineer must minimize the risk of these problems, however, there is a considerable uncertainty of different parameters such as geomechanical rock properties of drilled formation, and, data and parameters gathering are often incomplete. This uncertainty of main parameters have impact on the resulting SMWW.This paper perform an uncertainty evaluation of wellbore stability and its effect on the optimum interval of SMWW. The SMWW Uncertainty Evaluation of Wellbore Stability assessment for two failure criteria are compared, Mohr-Coulomb and Modified Lade criterion. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the uncertainty of the models and we do a sensitivity analysis and confidence level analysis. The paper will show the advantage of including uncertainty evaluation when determining the optimum SMWW window, as opposed to classical deterministic analysis. A case study is presented to draw a perfect understanding of the foundation of the MCS approach with practical and good results. It confirmed the capability of the proposed approach in solving such a strong-nonlinear, complex real problem.
