Abstract

Tropical cyclones have always proved the extent of its catastrophe on several occurrences over the years. In particular, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) basin in the Northern Indian Ocean has produced such historic devastating events, thereby mandating accurate real-time predictions. Numerical modeling of storm surge has always been an arduous task, as it is integrated with various uncertain factors. Among those, the major governing component being the wind forcing or the wind stress — that signifies, the computational accuracy of simulated surge and wave parameters. The present study is aimed at analysing the most suited wind drag evaluation method for real-time predictions of storm surge along the BoB. Cyclone Phailin (2013) was considered for the numerical simulations. To evaluate the wind drag coefficient, three most extensively used linear empirical relations along with the enhanced Wave Boundary Layer Model (e_WBLM) were used. The surge was subsequently simulated (using the coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave model: ADCIRC and SWAN, respectively), individually for each of the above wind stress methods to obtain the corresponding storm surge (residual) and the storm wave features. The modeled values were further validated with the in-situ data obtained from tide gauge station and buoys respectively. It was quite intuitively observed that, e_WBLM based results correlated well with the in-situ values than its linear counterparts since, the former pragmatically includes the effects of air-sea interaction at high wind speeds in the model. The e_WBLM-based computation of significant wave heights (Hs) in deep as well as shallow water, nevertheless enabled efficient and reasonably-reliable estimations of the peak incidents.

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