Ocean Swell: How Much Do We Know

Swell waves are present in more than 80% of ocean seas, and provide significant adverse impact on maritime operations. Their prediction by wave-forecast models, however, is poor, both in terms of wave amplitude and, particularly, arrival time. The very definition of ocean swell is ambiguous: while it is usually perceived as former wind-generated waves, in fact it may reconnect with the local wind through nonlinear interactions. The paper will bring together an overview of the complex swell problem. The visible swell attenuation is driven by a number of dissipative and non-dissipative processes. The dissipative phenomena include interaction with turbulence on the water and air sides, with adverse winds or currents. Non-dissipative contributions to the gradual decline of wave amplitude come from frequency dispersion, directional spreading, refraction by currents, and lateral diffraction of wave energy. The interactions with local winds/waves can, on the contrary, cause swell growth. Swell arrival time is the least understood and the most uncertain problem. Joint analysis of buoy observations and model reanalysis shows that swell can be tens of hours early or late by comparison with model predictions. Linear and nonlinear effects which can contribute to such biases are discussed.