Hurricane Risk Considerations for Offshore Wind Turbines on the Atlantic Coast

The development of renewable energy sources is a critical global need. The Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico of the U.S., with large wind resources and proximity to major population centers, are natural places for such development; however, these regions are also at considerable risk from severe hurricanes or tropical cyclones. Current international guidelines for the design of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) do not explicitly consider loading under hurricane conditions, however subsequent editions are anticipated to include language specific to hurricanes. Variability in extreme loads is greater in areas where hurricanes are likely and the design loads and risk profile of offshore structures installed in such areas are expected to be strongly influenced by hurricanes. For many offshore structures, environmental conditions at design recurrence periods and beyond are often estimated through extrapolation of long-term (i.e. multiple decades) wind and wave measurements from buoys, however, for offshore structures located at areas exposed to hurricanes, it is accepted practice to use physics-based models to augment the historical record of Atlantic hurricane activity and generate a stochastic catalog of synthetic hurricanes that provides tens of thousands of realizations for one year of potential hurricane activity. Once a stochastic catalog has been established, appropriate hazard intensity measures (e.g. the one-minute sustained wind speed, the significant wave height, and the peak spectral wave period) can be estimated for each storm at any site using well-known wind and wave parametric models. In this study, we consider several sites along the Atlantic coast and quantify the impact of estimating hazard for design recurrence periods and beyond for three different methods. The first is based on an extrapolation of wind and wave measurements from buoys, and the second and third are based on a stochastic catalog of synthetic hurricanes with wind and wave intensities estimated based on deterministic and probabilistic relationships.