This paper examines historical Arctic marine accidents from 1995–2004. It was seen during this time period that sinking and grounding of (fishing) vessels was the most common type of Arctic marine accident. A comprehensive accident model is presented to describe Arctic shipping accidents and their causation factors. The accident model is based on epidemiological concepts which explain how non-sequential factors result in an unwanted outcome, analogous to disease spreading through a human body. The causation factors are non-sequential and non-linearly dependent. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through examination of two past accidents: the Kolskaya and the Kulluk. Detailed description of how the accident model could be used for predictive accident modelling and risk analysis of Arctic shipping scenarios is also presented.

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