In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with DNV Recommended Practice RP-F101  formulation to establish the limit state functions of corroded pipes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects to determine the probability of failure at a given time. Bayesian and reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. Thus, a simple method to predict the probability of failure of a corroded pipeline along its operational life is proposed to provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy.
Pipeline Remaining Life Estimation Based on Concepts of Structural Reliability and Bayesian Inference
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Bisaggio, HDC, & Netto, TA. "Pipeline Remaining Life Estimation Based on Concepts of Structural Reliability and Bayesian Inference." Proceedings of the ASME 2014 33rd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. Volume 6B: Pipeline and Riser Technology. San Francisco, California, USA. June 8–13, 2014. V06BT04A029. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2014-24259
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