Prediction of Mooring Line Tensions for Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico Available to Purchase

A probabilistic metocean model for hurricane conditions is briefly described. The model is based on site-specific, hindcast data and defines the time variation of the metocean conditions during the realisation of a hurricane at the site. The annual extreme value distribution of mooring line tension for a large, semi-submersible, mobile drilling unit is computed. Time domain analysis is applied to obtain the short-term, extreme value distribution of line tension, conditional on stationary metocean conditions. A large number of different conditions are considered. A response surface is used to interpolate on the short-term distribution parameters in order to describe the tension response during the varying conditions associated with the passage of a hurricane. The hurricane duration is split into a sequence of 15-minute intervals such that the conditions can be assumed stationary during each such short interval. The tension distribution, conditional on the realisation of a hurricane, is accumulated across the sequence of short intervals. The distribution of hurricanes is taken into account to obtain the tension distribution in a random hurricane. Finally, the frequency of hurricanes is taken into account to give the annual extreme distribution of line tension. The characteristic tension computed using 10-year return conditions and the ISO 19901-7 design standard is found to correspond to a return period of 29 years in the test case. The effects of various assumptions in the design analysis are investigated. Sensitivities to simplifications of the metocean model are considered. The effects of uncertainties in the response calculation and in the distribution of peak significant wave height during hurricanes are quantified and included in the response analysis.