This paper presents an investigation of the still water sink trajectories of an accidentally dropped Christmas Tree (XT). A 3D coupled nonlinear dynamics/hydrodynamics model of the XT is constructed and simulations executed from surface to seabed. XT initial water entry orientations are randomly varied in a Monte-Carlo simulation to predict the seabed impact zone. Still water simulation results are compared to simplified cone-angle type method predictions. The effect of XT flat panels on excursion mitigation is investigated. Finally, the influence of non-uniform current effects is studied.

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