Over the design life of long tiebacks, project requirements may change in order to accommodate new prospects. These new prospects may have design conditions exceeding those used for the rest of the field and the existing facilities may not be able to withstand the potential increases in pressure arising from new wells. For smaller and accidental increases, the existing system may be proven to be fit for purpose by using a probabilistic approach, or a structural reliability assessment. This approach may eventually reduce the cost of the new prospect by, for example, removing the need for an over-pressure protection system, or removing the need for a dedicated pipeline system. This paper investigates the potential increase in pressure capacity of a main pipeline for an accidental over-pressure condition using a structural reliability analysis and probabilistic approach using as-built data gathered from several projects. The variations on the as-built pipeline properties, the current status of the existing pipeline, and the corresponding operating conditions are taken into account using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results present a burst pressure with an indication of a safety factor and associated with a probability of failure. A comparison between the final results and the pipeline codes target probability of failure is also performed and presented as part of this paper.

This content is only available via PDF.
You do not currently have access to this content.