Hindcast data for a specific location is utilised to develop a joint probability function for the metocean variables that are expected to have a significant effect on mooring line tensions for a floating platform moored at that location. The main random variables comprise: peak significant wave height, peak wind speed, peak surface current speed, peak wave direction, peak wind direction and peak current direction, where “peak” indicates the maximum intensity of the metocean effect during a random hurricane. The time lead of peak wind relative to peak waves and the time lag of peak current after peak wind are included as random variables. It is also necessary to describe the time variation around the peak events. Simple models are assumed based on inspection of the time variations during severe hurricanes. Only the part of the hurricane during which the significant wave height exceeds 80% of the peak value is taken into account. The duration of this interval is included. Linear variation is assumed for the directions, hence the rates of change of the 3 directions are included. A linear (triangular) plus parabolic model is assumed for the time variation of the intensities of the 3 metocean effects around their respective peaks. A single parameter is required to define the proportion of linear and parabolic models for each effect and the values of this parameter for each of the 3 metocean effects are also included as random variables.
A random hurricane can be drawn from this metocean model, such that the time variation of the metocean actions is deterministic once the values of the random variables have been selected. The overall duration of the hurricane is split into short intervals, each of 15 minutes duration, such that stationary response may be assumed during each short interval. The extreme value distribution of line tension during each short interval is obtained. These distributions are combined to obtain the extreme distribution of line tension during the hurricane. Second order reliability methods are applied to integrate over the distribution of the metocean variables and obtain the distribution of extreme tension during a random hurricane. The annual frequency of hurricanes is used to derive the annual extreme value distribution of line tension.
The model is intended for the reliability analysis of the ultimate limit state of mooring lines, but may also be applicable to other response variables. The present paper is primarily concerned with the metocean model, but it is intended to include sample results for the extreme line tension.
