Careful modelling of covariate effects is critical to reliable specification of design criteria. We present a spline based methodology to incorporate spatial, directional, temporal and other covariate effects in extreme value models for environmental variables such as storm severity. For storm peak significant wave height events, the approach uses quantile regression to estimate a suitable extremal threshold, a Poisson process model for the rate of occurrence of threshold exceedances, and a generalised Pareto model for size of threshold. Multidimensional covariate effects are incorporated at each stage using penalised tensor products of B-splines to give smooth model parameter variation as a function of multiple covariates. Optimal smoothing penalties are selected using cross-validation, and model uncertainty is quantified using a bootstrap resampling procedure. The method is applied to estimate return values for a large spatial neighbourhood of locations off the North West Shelf of Australia, incorporating spatial and directional effects.
Skip Nav Destination
ASME 2013 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
June 9–14, 2013
Nantes, France
Conference Sponsors:
- Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-5532-4
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Modelling Covariate Effects in Extremes of Storm Severity on the Australian North West Shelf
David Randell,
David Randell
Shell Research Ltd., Chester, UK
Search for other works by this author on:
Philip Jonathan,
Philip Jonathan
Shell Research Ltd., Chester, UK
Search for other works by this author on:
Kevin Ewans
Kevin Ewans
Sarawak Shell Bhd., Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Search for other works by this author on:
David Randell
Shell Research Ltd., Chester, UK
Yanyun Wu
Shell Research Ltd., Chester, UK
Philip Jonathan
Shell Research Ltd., Chester, UK
Kevin Ewans
Sarawak Shell Bhd., Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Paper No:
OMAE2013-10187, V02AT02A019; 9 pages
Published Online:
November 26, 2013
Citation
Randell, D, Wu, Y, Jonathan, P, & Ewans, K. "Modelling Covariate Effects in Extremes of Storm Severity on the Australian North West Shelf." Proceedings of the ASME 2013 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. Volume 2A: Structures, Safety and Reliability. Nantes, France. June 9–14, 2013. V02AT02A019. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2013-10187
Download citation file:
8
Views
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Articles
Uncertainties in Extreme Wave Height Estimates for Hurricane-Dominated Regions
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (November,2007)
Free-Form Conjugation Modeling and Gear Tooth Profile Design
J. Mechanisms Robotics (February,2013)
A Spatiodirectional Model for Extreme Waves in the Gulf of Mexico
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (February,2011)
Related Chapters
Establishing Unmanning Criteria for a Jacket Structure on the NCS
Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities
Utility Function Fundamentals
Decision Making in Engineering Design
A Smart Sampling Strategy for One-at-a-Time Sensitivity Experiments (PSAM-0360)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)