Coherent extreme current profiles are derived to reduce the over-conservatism associated with the traditional assumption that extreme currents occur at all depths through the water column simultaneously. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis has proven effective for derivation of coherent extreme current profiles in regions where it effectively captures the dominant characteristics of the flow regime. This is despite the questionable suitability of EOF for Current Profile Characterisation, which reduces a large current profile data set into a much smaller set of profiles for riser fatigue studies.
EOF Mode 1 and 2 are used to represent six years of in-situ current profiles accounting for 97.75% of the original variance. With the assumption that depth integrated speed squared is proportional to drag on a simple riser, three sets of extreme current profiles were derived. A) Profiles associated with extreme near surface current speeds, B) Profiles associated with extreme mid-depth current speeds and C) Profiles associated with extreme drag on a riser.
