A Proposed Strategy for Risk Analysis of Flexible Pipe Systems

Nowadays, due to the increasing importance of the HSE and also the operational availability requirements, one of the most important challenges for producing oil and gas at subsea environments is to have a mature methodology for quantifying risks. The main objective of this paper is to present a strategy for running risk analysis of flexible pipe systems. These systems are extensively used by Petrobras to flow different kinds of fluids in deep water offshore scenarios. The strategy presented herein includes the classification of threats and the potential failure mechanisms. Probabilistic figures are established depending on the historic data of the components of the flexible pipe system and also on the theoretical results obtained from available models for determination of the component remaining life. The strategy is based on the previous definition of inference rules and technical criteria for probability, consequence and risk assessments. The final goal is to have an adequate tool to help Operators to take decisions, to establish strategies and to improve flexible pipe integrity management.