Global buckling for exposed HPHT (High Pressure / High Temperature) subsea pipelines is an important feature that needs to be assessed during detailed design. By safely triggering controlled buckles at predetermined locations and considering the potential for rogue buckles to be triggered by seabed or pipelay out-of-straightness features, a robust design solution can be obtained. This paper presents a methodology whereby quantitative risk assessment may be carried out on the reliability of lateral buckling initiation systems, considering the pipeline in its entirety, rather than considering each intended buckle individually. This method accounts for buckle interaction when calculating the post-buckle loads, and allows simple incorporation of potential rogue sites through vertical and/or horizontal out-of-straightness. The results of the risk assessment can be defined in terms of buckle formation reliability, and design stress/strain criteria.

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