A time efficient methodology is described to evaluate the non linear extreme response of a riser connected to a FPSO subjected to wave induced loads in a stationary sea state. It is extended to cover all sea states and thus to assess the long term failure probability of the riser. The short term procedure is based on a classic time variant reliability method. It uses an approximation of the mean outcrossing rate, which is computed with the time invariant reliability method FORM (First Order Reliability Method).
Long Term Failure Probability Calculation Method Applied to Riser Design
Perdrizet, T, & Averbuch, D. "Long Term Failure Probability Calculation Method Applied to Riser Design." Proceedings of the ASME 2008 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. Volume 2: Structures, Safety and Reliability. Estoril, Portugal. June 15–20, 2008. pp. 847-852. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2008-57876
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