The main focus of the paper is to describe a framework for formulating design ice loads for an Arctic drilling platform using probabilistic methods. Particular attention has been paid to the issues of data and model uncertainty and possible effects due to climate change. We apply the methodology to a concept developed by StatoilHydro as a potential configuration for relatively shallow water depths. To minimize and resist ice loads, the concept utilizes a strong central leg and a combined template and platform docking foundation piled to the sea floor. The governing ice loads are due to the action of first-year ice ridges. The ice loads obtained by the probabilistic approach are compared with deterministic model results. A modification of the model is tested for various assumptions related to global warming and its effects on reduced ice coverage and thickness.

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