PERGOS hindcast model data from the north-east coast of Qatar has been analysed in order to estimate extreme values of total water level (crest height + surge height) and total water velocity (wave orbital velocity + in-line current velocity) based on analysis of 103 storms that occurred between 1961 and 2002. The PERGOS hindcast includes significant wave height, peak period, mean wave direction, surge height, depth-mean current speed and depth-mean current direction. Crest height has been derived from the source parameters using Fugro GEOS’ proprietary EXWAN program. Wave orbital velocity has been derived using stream function theory. Extreme values of total water level and total water velocity were estimated by: (i) univariate extremal analysis of the structure variable components, (ii) univariate extremal analysis of the structure variable, and (iii) bivariate extremal analysis of the structure variable components using Fugro GEOS’ proprietary GTMFIT program. The effect of the lag between the peak wave, current and surge events on extreme values of total water level and total water velocity has also been assessed. A reduction in the 10,000-year extreme water velocity of 14–21% and a reduction in the 10,000-year extreme water level of 3–14% have been achieved using the structure variable methods.

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