Since modern pipelines usually display ductile fracture behaviour, fracture assessments accounting for ductile tearing should be used. In this work we use a simplified strain-based fracture mechanics equation in the probabilistic fracture assessments. Furthermore, we use the traditional tangency criterion between the crack driving force and the crack growth resistance, in calculation of the onset of critical ductile tearing. Additionally, two types of external load on the line-pipe are considered, namely strains due to external bending moments and internal pressure. We establish the probability of fracture for line-pipes with relevant diameter to thickness ratios, and thicknesses, for J-laid or S-laid offshore pipelines. The distinction between system effects, in which all defects are likely to be subject to the same loading, and cases where only a small part of the pipeline will experience high loading, is also discussed.

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