This paper proposes a method to estimate the hydrological disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine city Shanghai, the biggest estuarine city in China. Considering the combined effect of Typhoon storm surge, flood peak from upper river Yangtze and astronomical spring tide, the Poisson-Gumbel Mixed Compound Extreme Distribution is adopted to predict the joint probability of storm surge and flood in the condition of spring tide. The stochastic simulation technique based on the Importance Sampling Procedure is also used to predict joint probability of storm surge, flood and spring tide. In comparison with the traditional method both of them give more reasonable design criteria for coastal defence of Shanghai.

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