Stochastic Analysis Method in Application of Longshore Sedimentation

Huanghua is one of the important ports in China. During its constructing stage, Huanghua port encountered the heavy sedimentation after each typhoon or other storm weather processes. In the feasibility study, the predicted yearly amount of sedimentation is far less than that observed. In order to obtain the reasonable design amount of sedimentation, the stochastic analysis methods are involved in this paper to predict the total sedimentation of different design return periods with corresponding confidence intervals. For the prediction of typhoon or storm (wind speed and duration) induced sedimentation, the trivariate joint probability of wind speed, duration and corresponding sedimentation can be obtained by stochastic simulation technique based on the importance sampling procedure.