Extreme value analysis for the prediction of long return period met-ocean conditions is often based upon hindcast studies of wind and wave conditions. The random errors associated with hindcast modeling are not usually incorporated when fitting an extreme value distribution to hindcast data. In this paper, a modified probability distribution function is derived so that modeling uncertainties can be explicitly included in extreme value analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation is then used to incorporate hindcast uncertainty into return value estimates and confidence intervals. The method presented here is compared against simulation techniques for accounting for hindcast errors. The influence of random errors within modeled datasets on predicted 100 year return wave estimates is discussed.
Skip Nav Destination
ASME 2004 23rd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
June 20–25, 2004
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Conference Sponsors:
- Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division
ISBN:
0-7918-3744-0
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
The Influence of Hindcast Modeling Uncertainty on the Prediction of High Return Period Wave Conditions
Daniel C. Brooker,
Daniel C. Brooker
University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
Search for other works by this author on:
Geoffrey K. Cole,
Geoffrey K. Cole
University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
Search for other works by this author on:
Jason D. McConochie
Jason D. McConochie
Woodside Energy, Ltd., Perth, WA, Australia
Search for other works by this author on:
Daniel C. Brooker
University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
Geoffrey K. Cole
University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
Jason D. McConochie
Woodside Energy, Ltd., Perth, WA, Australia
Paper No:
OMAE2004-51161, pp. 155-161; 7 pages
Published Online:
December 22, 2008
Citation
Brooker, DC, Cole, GK, & McConochie, JD. "The Influence of Hindcast Modeling Uncertainty on the Prediction of High Return Period Wave Conditions." Proceedings of the ASME 2004 23rd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 23rd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Volume 2. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. June 20–25, 2004. pp. 155-161. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2004-51161
Download citation file:
6
Views
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Articles
Model-Form Calibration in Drift-Diffusion Simulation Using Fractional Derivatives
ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B (September,2016)
Semi-Analytic Probability Density Function for System Uncertainty
ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B (December,2016)
Probabilistic Models Applicable to the Short-Term Extreme Response Analysis of Jack-Up Platforms
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (November,2003)
Related Chapters
Establishing Unmanning Criteria for a Jacket Structure on the NCS
Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities
PSA Level 2 — NPP Ringhals 2 (PSAM-0156)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
Constrained Noninformative Priors with Uncertain Constraints: A Hierarchical Simulation Approach (PSAM-0437)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)