Temperature Effects on FPSO Ultimate Strength: A Reliability Based Approach

Structural Reliability analysis is based on probability theory and a significant amount of literature exists on the subject and continues to be a subject of ongoing research. When the structural safety of a ship’s hull is considered, the ultimate hull girder strength should be evaluated. Existing literature on the subject often neglects the effect of temperature. This paper aims to determine the effects of temperature in ship structural reliability and to propose a procedure for analysing structures by taking into account temperature effects. The ultimate strength of the hull girder was calculated using a component approach, where the behaviour of the hull is evaluated based on the behaviour of the single structural components. A sample analysis for Tanker/FPSO structures is provided where the reliability analysis was carried out using a First and Second Order Reliability Method (FORM and SORM) analysis. The loading component was handled using extreme wave statistics and the Ferry Borges-Castanheta load combination method. Annual reliability indices and probabilities of failure were calculated for hogging and sagging conditions showing the effects of temperature along with Partial Safety Factors for all variables taken into account.