The Performance of Offshore Pipelines (POP) joint industry – government agency sponsored project was conceived to test pipelines in the field to allow verification of procedures used to analyze their potential loss of containment characteristics. This paper summarizes a series of analyses performed to predict the loss of containment (LOC) characteristics of one pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil pipeline tested had been in service for 22 years and was scheduled for removal. The pipeline was in-line instrumented, and then hydro-tested to failure. The failure section and other sections of the pipeline that had indicated significant corrosion features were retrieved and the geometric and material properties of the failure section and the other sections determined. LOC pressure forecasts were done in three stages: 1)before field testing, 2)after in-line instrumentation was performed and the data analyzed, and 3)after geometry measurements and materials testing. The LOC pressure and location determined during the field test were not released to the analysts until after all of the forecasts were completed and documented. This paper summarizes the results from the analyses of the field and laboratory test results to forecast the LOC pressure and compares the forecasts with the hydro-test results.

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