On January the 1st 1995, a “giant” wave is observed and measured at the Draupner platform in the North Sea. During a sea state with a significant wave height close to 12 meters, the crest of this isolated wave reached 18.5 meters. The question has been often asked if the physics governing such a wave differ from the physics governing the population of typical waves. Before responding more precisely to this question a first step is to use as accurately as possible, in such extreme situations, the physics governing the typical waves. One of the methodologies to furnish statistics of crest height for individual sea states starting from spectral information is based on Monte Carlo techniques. These techniques ask for the simulation of a very large population to estimate accurately the probability of occurrence of extreme events. As an example, in the sea state conditions of the “Draupner wave”, and using a linear irregular wave model, 40,000,000 simulated waves are necessary to calculate accurately the sea state conditional probability of occurrence of crests higher than 14.6 meters. In this context the more complex reasonably usable model is the irregular second order 3D wave model. In this paper we show how more complicated models (and so more time consuming simulators) can be used without loss in the accuracy of the estimation of the probability of occurrence. In that way, Creamer transform is used which gives the Draupner “giant” crest, 10 times more probable than given by second order models.
Skip Nav Destination
ASME 2002 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
June 23–28, 2002
Oslo, Norway
Conference Sponsors:
- Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division
ISBN:
0-7918-3612-6
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Probability of Occurrence of a “Giant” Wave Crest Available to Purchase
Barbara Bouffandeau
Barbara Bouffandeau
Universite´ Paris, Villetaneuse, France
Search for other works by this author on:
Marc Prevosto
IFREMER, Plouzane´, France
Barbara Bouffandeau
Universite´ Paris, Villetaneuse, France
Paper No:
OMAE2002-28446, pp. 483-490; 8 pages
Published Online:
February 24, 2009
Citation
Prevosto, M, & Bouffandeau, B. "Probability of Occurrence of a “Giant” Wave Crest." Proceedings of the ASME 2002 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Volume 2. Oslo, Norway. June 23–28, 2002. pp. 483-490. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2002-28446
Download citation file:
8
Views
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Articles
Stochastic Storm Profiles for Strain Accumulation in Clay
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (February,1994)
A Spectral Response Surface Method for Calculating Crest Elevation Statistics
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (February,2004)
On the Accuracy of Voluntary Observing Ship’s Records
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (October,2021)
Related Chapters
Establishing Unmanning Criteria for a Jacket Structure on the NCS
Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities
Implications of the Loads Jip on Extreme Wave Conditions in the North Sea
Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities
A Probabilistic Structural Reliability Assessment of Existing North Sea Platforms
Ageing and Life Extension of Offshore Facilities