A methodology to quantify the risk of leaving fatigue cracks unrepaired while a ship is in service is described. The basic variables used and the approaches to quantify their variability are described. Three different methods have been used to characterize the variation in toughness values between plates. Two of these keep the sampled toughness value constant as the crack grows while the third, a variable toughness model, tries to account for the variation in the toughness values as the crack grows. Preliminary results are also presented and the reasons for the results are discussed.

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