This paper develops an analytical framework for analyzing freight-train derailment risk due to track geometry failures. First, track geometry degradation is estimated based on a previous study that uses data from one Class I railroad. Then, the frequency of expected number of track-geometry-defect-caused derailment on mainlines is estimated. After that, the derailment severity (measured by the number of railcars derailed) can be predicted based on FRA-reportable track-geometry-failure-caused freight-train derailments. Due to data limitations, several simplifying assumptions were made to illustrate model structure and implementation procedure. The model can be adapted to specific carriers and locations for normative risk management of track geometry defects.

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