Under repetitive trainloads, lateral track displacement causes alignment irregularities in ballasted track structures, which in turn leads to gradual track state deterioration. For the prediction of alignment irregularities development, the Railway Technical Research Institute (RTRI) in Japan has adopted the analytical method of track mechanics to develop an alignment irregularity prediction model which takes track strength, deformation, operational conditions and maintenance & repair into overall account. Based on the actual situation of railway lines in China, this paper sets out to examine the pattern of changes in track alignment irregularity in relation to gross passing tonnage and develop a model of local alignment irregularity degradation called MPLIPM. The model uses track waveform data generated by the track geometry car to predict track alignment irregularities of a unit section. After comparing the predicted values with the actually measured data, evaluation results verified the accuracy of this model.

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