Properly characterizing the consequences of pipeline incidents is a critical component of assessing pipeline risk. Previous research has shown that these consequences follow a Pareto type distribution for gas distribution, gas transmission and hazardous liquid pipelines where low probability – high consequence (LPHC) events dominate the risk picture. This behavior is driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g. pipe diameter, pressure, location factors, etc.) and random factors (e.g. receptor density at specific time of release, variable environmental factors at time of release, etc.). This paper examines how the Pareto type behavior of the consequences of pipeline incidents arises and demonstrates how this behavior can be modeled through the use of a quantitative pipeline risk model. The result is a more complete picture of pipeline risk, including insight into LPHC events. Use of the modelling approach for integrity management is discussed.
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2018 12th International Pipeline Conference
September 24–28, 2018
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Conference Sponsors:
- Pipeline Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-5187-6
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Developing a Full Risk Picture for Gas Pipeline Consequences Available to Purchase
Ken E. Oliphant,
Ken E. Oliphant
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
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David A. Joyal,
David A. Joyal
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
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Vida Meidanshahi
Vida Meidanshahi
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
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Ken E. Oliphant
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
David A. Joyal
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
Vida Meidanshahi
JANA Corporation, Aurora, ON, Canada
Paper No:
IPC2018-78217, V002T07A009; 6 pages
Published Online:
November 6, 2018
Citation
Oliphant, KE, Joyal, DA, & Meidanshahi, V. "Developing a Full Risk Picture for Gas Pipeline Consequences." Proceedings of the 2018 12th International Pipeline Conference. Volume 2: Pipeline Safety Management Systems; Project Management, Design, Construction, and Environmental Issues; Strain Based Design; Risk and Reliability; Northern Offshore and Production Pipelines. Calgary, Alberta, Canada. September 24–28, 2018. V002T07A009. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/IPC2018-78217
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