This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the reliability of corroding pipelines by simultaneously considering the growth and generation of corrosion defects. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the generation of corrosion defects, whereas the non-homogeneous gamma process is used to characterize the growth of corrosion defects once generated. The parameters included in the non-homogeneous Poisson process and non-homogeneous gamma process are evaluated from the inline inspection data using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The measurement errors associated with the inline inspection tools are taken into account in the Bayesian updating. The time-dependent failure probability of the corroding pipeline is evaluated using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is illustrated using a natural gas pipeline that has been subjected to multiple inline inspections over a period of time. The results illustrate the necessity to incorporate the generation of new corrosion defects in the reliability analysis of corroding pipelines.
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Reliability Analysis of Corroding Pipelines Considering the Growth and Generation of Corrosion Defects
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Qin, H, & Zhou, W. "Reliability Analysis of Corroding Pipelines Considering the Growth and Generation of Corrosion Defects." Proceedings of the 2014 10th International Pipeline Conference. Volume 3: Materials and Joining; Risk and Reliability. Calgary, Alberta, Canada. September 29–October 3, 2014. V003T12A010. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/IPC2014-33213
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