Site-Specific Quantitative Pipeline Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Methods

This paper compares a site specific quantitative risk analysis for a gas transmission pipeline using traditional “average” risk ranking methods to a more complex Monte Carlo analysis using a range of possibilities and consequences for the various areas of the site—each with their own probability. The comparison is based on the California “Guidance Protocol for School Site Pipeline Risk Analysis”, a quantitative risk analysis protocol which uses average probability and consequence values, and extends it to explain how a more complex Monte Carlo analysis of those same risk factors can give a more comprehensive understanding of anticipated risks and consequences.