Forecasting the Consequences of Pipeline Failures

The consequences of the accidental release of petroleum based liquids or natural gas from onshore pipelines are studied. Damage to property, environment and society are considered. Property damage and environmental reparation costs are evaluated directly from publicly available data. Straight forward regression models are proposed to quantify these types of consequence, considering the released fluid and the characteristics of the environment. Societal impact, taken as the number of casualties, is evaluated by combining approximated fire models, heat vs. mortality correlations, population density and the statistical value of life. For gas, a jet fire model is employed; the heat flux is parameterized by the pressure and the failure size. For liquid releases, either pool or jet fire model might be employed, according to the size of the hole. The heat flux of the pool fire model depends on the size of the pool, which is determined by a correlation between released volume and affected area. On the jet fire model the heat flux is parameterized by the release rate and the heat of combustion. This study may serve as basis for the estimation of the consequences of failure in the evaluation of the risk of operating hazard liquids and natural gas pipelines.