Fitness for service assessments of oil and gas pipelines, conducted either at the design stage or to evaluate an indentified anomaly, are generally carried out in a deterministic manner based on conservative estimates of the required input parameters.

The following paper presents a probabilistic Fitness-for-Service (FFS) assessment approach which can be used in a risk based pipeline integrity management program. The probabilistic assessment utilizes an Advanced Monte Carlo simulation based approach and the fracture mechanics techniques described in BS 7910. The paper presents an overview of the basic approach and provides a demonstration of its capabilities in terms of estimating the risk of failure (or probability of failure) associated with a pipeline over time, due to the presence of a crack like flaw. The paper also discusses the sources of data and inherent assumptions used to model various input parameters required for a typical FFS analysis carried out according to BS 7910.

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