Model Error Assessment of Burst Capacity Models for Defect-Free Pipes

The model errors associated with 19 burst pressure prediction models for defect-free thin-walled pipes are evaluated using a total of 76 full-scale burst test data of perfect pipes and pressure vessels collected from the literature. The considered models are based on the Tresca yield criterion, the von Mises yield criterion, or the average shear stress yield criterion. The probabilistic characteristics of the model error, i.e. the mean, coefficient of variation and best-fit probability distribution, are obtained based on the test-to-predicted ratios. The applicability of an empirical equation for estimating the strain hardening exponent in the burst capacity models is also evaluated. The model errors obtained in this study can be used in the structural reliability analysis of energy pipelines with respect to the limit state of burst of defect-free pipes and will facilitate the reliability-based design and assessment of pipelines.